📊 SQS CEO Daily Intelligence Brief
Date: March 27, 2025
📌 Executive Summary
Tightening global arbitrage flows, Latin America compliance concerns, and growing signs of transshipment-related frauds marked today’s intelligence landscape. ULSD spreads continue to widen across Brazil, while Asia-based petrochemical flows revealed new counterparty risk. AI models confirmed bearish patterns in PP and Jet A1. Marine congestion impacts bunkering pricing in Panama.
🧠 CEO Action Points
- 🔁 Reassess PP spot bookings in Turkey due to declining FOB premiums.
- 📉 Hold off procurement of high-risk ammonia tenders in SEA.
- 🧯 Investigate transshipment risks in West Africa–to–Turkey EN590 cargo chains.
- 🛑 Delay fresh LPG volumes into NE Asia until freight stabilizes.
🛢️ LPG & Energy Markets
- Propane CIF ARA holds at $552/MT. Firm bid in NW Europe, USGC demand +10% WoW.
- Butane soft in NE Asia. Taiwanese and Korean demand recovering for Q2.
📈 Forward Curve Analysis
| Commodity | Current | 1-Month | 3-Month |
|---|
| ULSD | $664.25 | $672.50 | $689.00 |
| Brent Crude | $71.73 | $72.50 | $74.00 |
| Copper CIF Asia | $8,750 | $8,920 | $9,100 |
🔩 Steel, Iron Ore & Clinker
EU coil offers remain stable. Rebar FOB Turkey down 1.4%. Brazilian billet flows slow. Iron ore CFR China holds at $111/MT.
♻️ Scrap Metals
Rotterdam shredded: €345/MT. Turkish HMS 1/2 (80:20): $385/MT CFR. South Asia hesitant on high stock levels.
📊 Technical Price Indicators
- Brent RSI: 59 → Neutral
- Copper MACD: Turning bullish
- ULSD: Mild Q2 contango suggests storage play
📦 Real-Time Inventory Trends
- ARA propane storage: 73%
- Singapore middle distillates: +3.2% WoW
- Houston terminals: Flat
- Fujairah naphtha draw: -0.8%
🌍 Global Shipping Congestion
Suez Canal VLGC delays: 2.5 days. Panama bunkering affected by weather. Eastern Chinese ports easing.
🚢 Tanker Charter Rate Tracker
- VLCC AG-China: $50,000/day
- Aframax Med-Med: $31,000/day
- MR Gulf-NWE: $24,700/day
🔍 Arbitrage Hot Zones: APAC + LATAM
- Petroecuador sold 15M+ bbl crude; Napo at -$9.88/b WTI.
- EN590 transshipment spike via Malaysia → China.
- Fuel oil arbitrage via Colombo. Watch Colombia and Peru ports.
- LDPE CFR SEA verified @ $1015/MT | Benzene FOB Korea flagged @ $1088/MT
🧠 Compliance Risk Scoring
- ⚠️ Inter Petrochem: Under-delivery flagged
- ⚠️ Gulf Refining: Suspected false offer chain
- 🚨 EN590 West Africa → Turkey flow flagged (volume anomaly)
- 🚨 Fuel Oil into Colombia: Origin masking suspected
📊 Visuals & Embedded Charts
💬 Broker Voice Summary
“PS deals drying up in China; freight spikes holding back fresh volumes. Benzene market tight across Europe, CFR buyers slow to respond.”
📆 Macro Calendar & Refinery Watch
- 📅 US Durable Goods – 13:30 GMT
- 🇪🇺 EU Chemicals Index – 15:00 GMT
- 🛠 Shell Rotterdam FCC offline until April 6
- 🛠 Petronas Melaka restart expected April 2
📉 Cost Curve Analysis
- Middle East LDPE FOB: $975/MT | CFR China: $1015/MT → Spread: $40
- Benzene Korea prod cost: $980 → arbitrage open
🚨 Fraud Watchlist: Flagged Shipments
🛳️ MT Ocean Shadow
EN590 Diesel – Primorsk → Fujairah – Over-delivery, false declared port
Risk Score: 4.5
🛳️ MT Sea Falcon
Jet A1 – Jeddah → Rotterdam – AIS blackout during Suez
Risk Score: 3.8
🛳️ MT Gulf Breeze
Fuel Oil – Novorossiysk → Port Said – Undeclared STS transfer near Crete
Risk Score: 4.7
🛳️ MT Silver Tide
LPG – Ras Tanura → Singapore – Volume mismatch with terminal
Risk Score: 3.6
Contact: intelligence@sterlingquantum.com
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